Bihar polls: NDA to take decisive lead, finds Polstrat opinion poll

Polstrat, a leading polling agency, released its Opinion Poll for the Bihar Assembly elections 2025 on Tuesday, based on a sample size of 8.42 lakh respondents. As per Polstrat survey findings, the BJP-led NDA is set to take a decisive advantage over the main RJD-led Opposition and looks poised to return to power with a clear majority.

BJP-led NDA is seen fetching 44.80 per cent vote share while the grand alliance is trailing behind at 38.60 per cent. The difference of 6 per cent vote share between the two rival alliances also resonates in the stark contrast in victory margin, as the NDA is expected to win 133-142 seats, while the grand alliance is likely to emerge victorious in 80-88 seats. BJP is seen claiming victory in 70-72 seats, JD (U) in 53-56 seats, while the smaller alliance partners like LJP and HAM are expected to win 10-12 and 0-2 seats respectively.

In the Mahagathbandhan, the power equation remains tilted towards RJD, much like the earlier electoral performances. RJD is seen emerging victorious in 69-72 seats while Congress could taste success in just 10-13 seats, as per the survey findings. The Polstrat Opinion Poll has also delved into the voting percentage of the state’s population, depending on their age. Its findings show a large chunk of young voters swaying towards Mahagathbandhan, almost in equal measure to the NDA.

In the 18-25 age bracket, the grand alliance is seen surging ahead of NDA with 40.73 vote share, while in the 26-40 age bracket, NDA is seen taking the lead with 43.18 per cent vote share. For the middle-aged and senior citizens, NDA remains the favourable choice of voters, with over 47 per cent in the 41-59 age group and over 47 per cent in the senior citizen category opting for the BJP-led alliance.

Prashant Kishor-led Jan Suraaj is seen gaining notable support in the young voters category, with over 12 per cent voters opting for it in the 18-25 age category. Chanakya Strategies, another polling agency, has made a similar forecast in its pre-poll survey for the Bihar elections. According to its findings, NDA is set to win 128-134 seats while the Mahagathbandhan is expected to lay claim to 102-108 seats in the 243-member Assembly. Others, including Owaisi-led AIMIM, Pashupati Paras-led RLJP, and ASP, which contested on 25 seats independently, are expected to garner 0-3 seats in the hotly contested elections.